WP2 - Integrated Conceptual Model Development
WP2 will develop a coherent conceptual framework which attempts to characterise and capture the critical relationships between physical and ecological processes, ES provision, direct and indirect economic drivers and poverty and health. The work will feed directly into WP3 and WP5. The conceptual framework will incorporate theoretical areas that highlight different elements of the linkages between ES and poverty as determined by the available qualitative and quantitative models.
WT 2.1: Hypothesis Creation & Identification of Ecosystem Services - review and develop a series of integrated conceptual frameworks, formalised within a systems dynamic models approaches (eg STELLA software). This work will generate initial specific hypotheses on linkages between poverty, physical/ecological change and ES provision status associated with each of the quantifiable associated models of WP3 and WP5. The process will highlight in a qualitative and quasi-quantitative the inter-relationship in a spatial and temporal context allowing for investigation of diverse utilisation of the ES mosaic. This process will be supported by a substantive review of theoretical literature and literature specific to Bangladesh relating to ES provision and the complex relationships to poverty. Hence, a draft conceptual framework and hypothesis will be created. This process will cover food, water regulation, water purification/treatment as well as external drivers (eg climate) and social impact (eg GDP). Together these provide historical profiles of regional-local socio-ecological change. These profiles can be analysed to rank the recent rates of change, the relative severity of ES loss. This process will be supported by relevant inputs on the governance and policy context from WP1.
WT 2.2: Identification of community level stakeholders who are willing to take part in the social survey and stakeholder workshops as well as participating in WP3 social survey questionnaire (quantitative). This process will be based upon the work of developing the hypothesis and draw upon the experience of interaction with the communities.
WT 2.3: Models, hypotheses and concepts (WT 2.1) will be validated through a workshop, and key informant interviews with government and academic stakeholders to finalise validity in a governance context and provide the potential for expert adaption of the hypothesis
WT 2.4: Linkage to WP3 & 5 Quant. Requirements. The development of a series of conceptual dynamic systems diagrams linking poverty, physical change and ecological service provision developed in WT2.1 and validated in WT 2.3 will be quantified through models produced in WP3 and WP5.In this WT the conceptual models will presented and discuss with stakeholders and modelling experts to identify quantification strategies to be completed in WP 3& 5. Where required this will inform modelling of resilience (e.g. the adaptive cycle) and path dependency (e.g. poverty traps) and inform the process modelling activity about the appropriate timescales over which model outputs are valid.